What follows is an example of how mental tunnels can lead to poor conclusions. The fact that they are the conclusions we desire does not change the horror of their acceptance. (And, no, it doesn’t have anything to do with internal auditing. So sue me.) 

The most important answer first. I promised bonus points to anyone who could tell us the author of the song “My Whole World Lies Waiting Behind Door Number 3”. If you answered Jimmy Buffet, then you are partially correct (and a complete Parrot Head). The complete answer is that the co-writer was Steve Goodman (no relation to John).

First things first. Five points to the first to identify who wrote the song referenced in the title. 

Next things next. Ben caught me. In my previous post I fell into my own mental tunnel and didn’t carry the decimal point. I wrote that 70 percent of 40 was 2.8 rather than 28. It doesn’t change the conclusion. However, I should be able to do simple math.

Let’s revisit why we’re all gathered here today. We have been talking about how numbers can fail and obvious logic isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. We’ve talked about the average of averages, Simpson’s Paradox, and, most recently, a few quick questions that show us how we can be led down a logical path that is not always correct. Let’s look at the solutions for those last questions. (I’m not going to repeat them here, just go back to the previous post to play along.) 

Ha! I notice that everyone was more than willing to explain what was wrong in my first post on this subject. But, as soon as the problem becomes more counter-intuitive, everyone runs away. 

In my previous post, I asked you to figure out how the auditor went wrong. D. Wanner nailed it in his response to the post. But, since I’ve already written this part, I’ll go through my own explanation.

It is amazing what our minds do to us. And we are never quite so obstinately unintelligent as when we think — nay, we know — that our conclusions based on numbers and statistics are absolutely true. 

My apologies for having been absent so long. Been a lot going on lately. However, it hasn’t stopped me from reading, and it’s given me the chance to revisit some of my favorite audit classics. Therefore, I give you my list of the best opening lines from the best audit books. 

Did you catch this from The Washington Post? It is a list of the worst ideas of the decade. Work your way down the list and notice that seventh item. Yep, the article listed the U.S. Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 as one of the worst ideas of the decade. There is an entire write-up on Sarbanes-Oxley that I invite you to read. It is very instructional.

Now, one last song for the holidays. (I think I've saved the best for last.) A happy reminder of how we all handle the hustle and bustle of the year’s end.